7/3/11
If developer Dan Johnson and his team finally earn approval to revitalize a derelict lumber mill's 240-acre company town on the shores of Humboldt County they'll be building homes with first floors 32 feet above ground.
The state's scientific advisers expect rising sea levels will hasten most of the California coastline's eastward push as it combines with storms or tsunamis. They say the few extra feet through 2100 will slowly make beaches of bluffs and marshes of beaches.
From Crescent City to San Diego, state and local planning authorities have started telling developers to factor sea-level rise into project designs.
California's diverse coastal terrain means every spot needs a unique and costly adaptation, frustrating both environmentalists and coastal property owners.
"There's a major tug between those who want to protect economic investment and those wanting to preserve natural habitat," said Curtis Fossum, the State Lands Commission's executive officer.
Environmentalists loathe the erection of sea walls, which tarnish prized beaches. Developers question overly cautious planning officials for relying on uncertain estimates. Builders only reluctantly agree to leave open low-lying coastal space that would otherwise generate profits.
A decade ago, Johnson began seeking clearance for his $100 million mixed-use town on the half-mile-wide Samoa peninsula just west of Eureka.
State studies show the tiny strip is susceptible to tsunamis. Three major ones have hit the northern coast in the past 60 years. Many scientists also say global climate change will bring more frequent storms of great intensity.
Tack sea level rise onto either tsunami or storm waves, and there's a potential of accelerated erosion and more severe coastal flooding. As a result, a $100,000 peer-reviewed study by Johnson's consultants found that permanent habitable space in the project must be 32 feet above ground to miss the brunt of tsunami waves – with a 3-foot sea rise included.
"It's not about letting people stay in their house, but about having something for them to come back to," Johnson said.
Town by town, as projects such as Johnson's come to the Coastal Commission's attention, the panel has forced local agencies to adopt a rule that all new projects consider sea level rise.
Advocates for protecting the coast say developers and regulators are playing a dangerous game by building so close to the ocean.
Former Sierra Club California coastal programs leader Mark Massara is skeptical that all of Johnson's project will remain usable by 2100.
In March, the state's Ocean Protection Council decided state agencies should prepare for a half-foot increase in sea level by 2030, just above a foot of rise by 2050 and nearly 5 feet of rise by 2100 if humans don't start drastically cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
A study undertaken by the state due at the end of year will reveal which areas of the coast are most at risk. It would cost $100 billion in 2000 dollars to replace existing coastal property in California, according to 2009 study for the state by the Pacific Institute.
Coastal landmarks like roads, golf courses and train tracks eventually may be relocated – lest they become crackers in oceanic soup.
Other property, such as the San Francisco International Airport, will need fortified levees. Groups such as Sierra Club California and the commission warn that levees and sea walls are costly and would destroy sandy beaches because they stop sand from being replenished by natural bluff erosion. Sea walls already line about a tenth of California's 1,100 miles of coast.
Whether it's sea walls, leaving property undeveloped or moving structures back, the precautions mean extra costs and lower returns for project promoters. It's a delicate compromise.
Humboldt County developer Kurt Kramer said as needed as they may be, the added burdens from the short-staffed Coastal Commission discourage construction.
"They win by making the economic model uneconomic," he said.
State officials said putting together plans and rules in place now is essential.
"If you build a roof over your house in July, you call it an expense," said Will Travis of the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission. "Come November, you view it as an investment."
